Feb 11, 2009
By Hiyam Noir in Gaza and Les Blough in Venezuela.
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"Prior to the advent of polling, public opinion could often only be inferred from political behavior… The advent of polling transformed public opinion from a behavioral to an attitudinal phenomenon. Polls elicit, organize, and publicize opinion without requiring any action on the part of the opinion holder…. From the perspective of political elite, the obvious virtue of polls is that they make it possible to recognize and deal with popular attitudes… before they materialize in some unpleasant, disruptive, or threatening form of political action…. By converting opinion from a behavioral to an attitudinal phenomenon, polling is, in effect, also transforming public opinion into a less immediately threatening and dangerous phenomenon."
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- Benjamin Ginzberg in his book,
The Captive Public: How Mass Opinion Promotes State Power
The Captive Public: How Mass Opinion Promotes State Power
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Introduction
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An opinion survey was conducted in the West Bank and Gaza Strip by the Center for Opinion Polls and Survey Studies at An-Najah National University during the first 2 days of February, 2009. The survey was conducted on a sample of 1,361 Palestinians who responded to a questionnaire. The results showed that 57 percent of Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip believe that Hamas is stronger now than it was prior to the Israelis offensive in December and January, but there were many other queries in the questionnaire method that reveal a pro-Fatah and pro-Israel bias.
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Hiyam Noir.Editor of PalestineFreeVoice and Les Blough, Editor of Axis of Logic, decided to examine the survey;
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Volumes have been written on the subject of how polls and surveys should be conducted and on their many pitfalls and ways how they have been used to manipulate the public. In this analysis, we will limit ourselves to a few fundamentals that will help us understand the quality of the poll conducted by An-Najah University. The specific target of the survey were the Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank Many are now asking who selected the sample, how was it carried out, how were the questions on the survey selected and who interpreted the results.
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Purpose of the poll
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Political polls are notorious for being used as manipulative tools and/or to provide the ruling class with information for their political strategies and campaigns.The An–Najah National University, Center for Opinion Polls and Survey Studies, does not even provide a motive of their objectives for conducting this survey. It only states that the poll "undertakes the current political realities" which includes :
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Political polls are notorious for being used as manipulative tools and/or to provide the ruling class with information for their political strategies and campaigns.The An–Najah National University, Center for Opinion Polls and Survey Studies, does not even provide a motive of their objectives for conducting this survey. It only states that the poll "undertakes the current political realities" which includes :
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· the Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip and its consequences,
· aids allocated for the rebuilding of the Strip,
· attempts towards achieving a Palestinian national reconciliation,
· attempts to restore truce between Israel and Hamas,
· the possibility of sending Arab and international troops to the West Bank and the
Gaza Strip
Gaza Strip
· in addition political affiliations and other issues."
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None of the listed factors answers our two leading questions. Rather, this it speaks to the subject matter which the poll "undertakes". Our first question regarding the purpose and motivating force behind the poll is not answered. Was this poll meant to help Palestinians to understand their collective views for the purpose of achieving some sort of consensus? Or was the poll conducted for some nefarious purpose?
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Funding for the poll
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An-Najah is known for its support of Fatah, the preference of U.S. and Israel to rule Palestine - democratically-elected or not. Who were the specific people who decided to conduct the poll and in what manner would be designed? What was the specific funding source of the poll? An-Najah does not provide this information. They simply highlight the following words in their introduction: "The University sponsors all polls conducted by its Center". Who funds the university? The "Facts and Figures" section of the An-Najah website states that the university "relies on the in-kind philanthropic donations of its friends and alumni". They describe 3 types of funding: Unrestricted, Restricted and Permanent.
The first two are of particular interest in the context of funding for this poll: http://www.najah.edu/index.
The first two are of particular interest in the context of funding for this poll: http://www.najah.edu/index.
Unrestricted funds give the university the option of using the money for "special opportunities" and "emergency needs". Restricted funds allow the donor to specify the funds " for a specific function of your choice.This post-Gaza slaughter poll could have been funded by any person, political body or nation.
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The 1.361 respondents were eligible voters, 18 years of age and older. An enclosed questionnaire was distributed on 861 persons from the West Bank and 500 persons from the Gaza Strip. 4.1% of the members of the sample refused to answer the questionnaire.
The pollsters report, "The sample was drawn randomly and the margin of error is about ±3%; still 4.1% of the members of the sample refused to answer the questionnaire."
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General observations
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The population the poll is meant to represent is neither, identified or described. The report on the poll does not provide any raw data. For example, the report does not say if the research is based on demographic and socio-economic patterns or stratified according to other variables such as faith (Muslim,Christian or other), gender, income levels, education, injuries or deaths from the war on Gaza, etc.
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-The poll was conducted exclusively along political lines during a state of complete turmoil and chaos in Gaza.
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-The poll was conducted exclusively along political lines during a state of complete turmoil and chaos in Gaza.
-The poll included 500 people in Gaza and 861 in the West Bank. The West Bank is marked by corruption, internal division, occupation and collaboration with the Israelis under the Abbas/Fatah regime.
-The poll was conducted just 22 days after the devastating Zionist attack on Gaza, ostensibly to remove Hamas, the democratically-elected government.
The populations targeted by the poll remain in deep shock and in grief following the 22 day bombardment, preceded by an 18 months Israeli siege.The universally-accepted purpose of the siege and bombardment was to turn the people in Gaza against their elected government and to subject them to the Mahmoud Abbas regime, the U.S./Israeli choice for ruling Palestine.
9 Key questions about the survey
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The populations targeted by the poll remain in deep shock and in grief following the 22 day bombardment, preceded by an 18 months Israeli siege.The universally-accepted purpose of the siege and bombardment was to turn the people in Gaza against their elected government and to subject them to the Mahmoud Abbas regime, the U.S./Israeli choice for ruling Palestine.
9 Key questions about the survey
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1. What was the actual intended purpose of the poll?
2. Who paid for the survey?
3. What was the process for selecting the sample?
4. How were the questions selected, worded and in what order were they asked?
5. Were the questionnaires received by mail or were they hand-delivered?
6. If hand-delivered, by students or survey staff, how were the students or staff selected?
7. What training did they receive?
8. Upon what scientific principles was the survey based?
9. Was any process evaluation or outcome evaluation conducted?
Where is the raw data?
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Where is the raw data?
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The population represented
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The process of a research survey is often mysterious, particularly for those who do not understand how polls are constructed and carried out. Many Palestinians we have interviewed wonder how the 1361 respondents can truly represent 1.5 million Palestinians? Many people in Gaza who have seen the results are skeptical, to say the least. Their skepticism is healthy. Polls have long been used as a manipulative tool, so much so that polls are even conducted on the credibility of polls!
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Selection and composition of survey questions
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Questions for a poll are to be constructed scientifically and answers to those questions are to be interpreted scientifically. What is as important as the selection of questions to be asked is the way in which they are worded and the order in which they are asked.
The British Polling Council describes the problem:
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Selection and composition of survey questions
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Questions for a poll are to be constructed scientifically and answers to those questions are to be interpreted scientifically. What is as important as the selection of questions to be asked is the way in which they are worded and the order in which they are asked.
The British Polling Council describes the problem:
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"The polls might have asked different questions. Wording matters, especially on subjects where many people do not have strong views. It is always worth checking the exact wording when polls appear to differ. There might be an "order effect". One poll might ask a particular question "cold", at the beginning of a survey; another poll might ask the same question "warm", after a series of other questions on the same topic. Differences sometimes arise between the two sets of results, again when many people do not have strong views, and some people may give different answers depending on whether they are asked a question out of the blue or after being invited to consider some aspects of the issue first."
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"Seeded questions" in "retro-polling" are known for influencing the respondent. In this case, a negative valence is applied on the question. For example, a question could be asked, "Why did you pick that absurd name?" - or "Do you support the conservatives or oppose helping children?"
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The respondent has to either justify or defend his or her answer rather than simply giving an opinion. Moreover, the effects of this type of question can run even deeper, depending on the tone of voice and expression on the face of the interviewer if present when the questionnaire is delivered. Below, we provide 4 examples of questions that skew the result in the Al-Najah survey:The very first question on the An-Najah survey asks about the cause of the Israeli bombardment and invasion of Gaza in December and January.
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The respondent has to either justify or defend his or her answer rather than simply giving an opinion. Moreover, the effects of this type of question can run even deeper, depending on the tone of voice and expression on the face of the interviewer if present when the questionnaire is delivered. Below, we provide 4 examples of questions that skew the result in the Al-Najah survey:The very first question on the An-Najah survey asks about the cause of the Israeli bombardment and invasion of Gaza in December and January.
The question is framed thus:
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"Do you think that the Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip was a reaction to the firing of rockets from the Strip?"
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The problem with this question, in part, is the order in which it has been asked (i.e. first on the survey). This, being the first of question on the survey, sets the stage for the remaining 42 inquiries which are blatantly designed to favor Fatah and Israel. The first question could as easily been asked, "Do you think that Hamas rocket fire was a response to Israel's 18 month siege and missile strikes in the Gaza Strip?
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Another question on the survey suggests a particular response:
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The problem with this question, in part, is the order in which it has been asked (i.e. first on the survey). This, being the first of question on the survey, sets the stage for the remaining 42 inquiries which are blatantly designed to favor Fatah and Israel. The first question could as easily been asked, "Do you think that Hamas rocket fire was a response to Israel's 18 month siege and missile strikes in the Gaza Strip?
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Another question on the survey suggests a particular response:
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"There are those who say that Hamas is belligerent towards Fateh activists in the Gaza Strip. Do you support or reject this allegation?"
The next example is so obscure, the response is negated:
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"How do you assess media coverage of the war on the Gaza Strip?".
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What media are people in war-torn Gaza watching? Are the Gazan's reading local Palestinian news papers, news coverage on Internet and New York Times or watching the TV channel's CNN and Aljazeera? In their shell-shocked condition, under continuing siege, without electricity, water, medical treatment, food as a result of hermetically closed border crossings, what media is available to them? How much time and energy do they have to watch the media while burying and grieving their dead, thousands suffering from untreated wounds, struggling to feed their families, the homeless finding shelter and suffering in fear.
A fourth example of this survey's questions assumes that the Palestinian resistance either broke the former truce agreement, which is not true, or it assumes the resistance will be the one to violate a current or future truce agreement. No questions in the survey express the Israelis violations of the truce agreement.
A fourth example of this survey's questions assumes that the Palestinian resistance either broke the former truce agreement, which is not true, or it assumes the resistance will be the one to violate a current or future truce agreement. No questions in the survey express the Israelis violations of the truce agreement.
"Do you support military operations by Palestinian resistance factions after reaching a truce agreement?"
Design, execution and interpretation of polls
The sample: Selecting a sample that fairly represents a larger population is the fundamental basis for all survey research. Stratified random selection is the most widely accepted method for selecting a sample if it is to speak for a broader population. Otherwise, the sample cannot be held to represent the attitudes, opinions, or projected behavior of the population of which it is a part.
The fundamental goal of a survey is based on probabilities. The idea is that there is a high probability that the same results achieved through a sample would have been achieved if something on the order of 98% of the population had been surveyed personally.
Random Selection: The crucial element in reaching this goal is a fundamental principle called "equal probability of selection" (EPS). EPS assumes that if every member of a population has an equal probability of being selected in a sample, then that sample will be representative of the population. Thus, the goal in selecting samples is to allow every citizen an equal chance of falling into the sample. This random selection method precludes a rigging of the sample for a desired outcome.
Physical location: A population poll should select a place where all or most citizens are equally likely to be found. That would not be a market or a mall, a larger grocery store, an office building, workplace, a hotel or an event such as a sports game. A place where nearly all adults most likely is to be found, is in their home, so that said, reaching people at home should be the starting place for most population surveys.
Data collection: The standard method to conduct a survey until the mid-1980s, knocking on doors was considered to be a reliable method but the labor intensity of the surveys made this very difficult. The surveys were reported to be highly accurate, with average error of less than 3% points. The validity and reliability of even these surveys is mitigated by foibles such as the construction of the survey, interviewer bias, language difficulties and perception. By the end of the 1980s the vast majority of national surveys were conducted in telephone interviews. Telephone interviews are perhaps easier and less expensive to conduct but even less reliable than in-person interviews. Today, approximately 95% of all households have a telephone and almost every survey that recorded and reported is based on interviews conducted by telephone.
The fundamental goal of a survey is based on probabilities. The idea is that there is a high probability that the same results achieved through a sample would have been achieved if something on the order of 98% of the population had been surveyed personally.
Random Selection: The crucial element in reaching this goal is a fundamental principle called "equal probability of selection" (EPS). EPS assumes that if every member of a population has an equal probability of being selected in a sample, then that sample will be representative of the population. Thus, the goal in selecting samples is to allow every citizen an equal chance of falling into the sample. This random selection method precludes a rigging of the sample for a desired outcome.
Physical location: A population poll should select a place where all or most citizens are equally likely to be found. That would not be a market or a mall, a larger grocery store, an office building, workplace, a hotel or an event such as a sports game. A place where nearly all adults most likely is to be found, is in their home, so that said, reaching people at home should be the starting place for most population surveys.
Data collection: The standard method to conduct a survey until the mid-1980s, knocking on doors was considered to be a reliable method but the labor intensity of the surveys made this very difficult. The surveys were reported to be highly accurate, with average error of less than 3% points. The validity and reliability of even these surveys is mitigated by foibles such as the construction of the survey, interviewer bias, language difficulties and perception. By the end of the 1980s the vast majority of national surveys were conducted in telephone interviews. Telephone interviews are perhaps easier and less expensive to conduct but even less reliable than in-person interviews. Today, approximately 95% of all households have a telephone and almost every survey that recorded and reported is based on interviews conducted by telephone.
Stratified Sampling: The method of stratified random selection of a sample must first ensure that the respondents were selected randomly. Second, they must be randomly selected across different socio-economic strata, such as political affiliations, race, income, education, gender, employment, etc. In addition, obvious factors for stratification in this poll should include the impact of the war on Gaza on individual respondents (trauma, loss of a family member, loved one or personal injury). While the final question on the survey asked about the respondent's political affiliation, there is no evidence that respondents were selected for the sample based on their political preferences.
A stratified, randomly selected sample of 1,000 respondents could more accurately represent a population of millions than 1,000,000 respondents in a similar population who were not selected randomly and not stratified according to conditions like those described above. On the other hand, as a rule, the more people surveyed correctly - the higher the probability the sample represents the population. This rather obscure poll of 1361 Palestinians among 1.5 million, may or may not represent the views of the Palestinian people as a whole. However, it is reported to serve that very end.
When an organization does not reveal their funding source, their purpose, survey design (selection and wording of questions), their sampling techniques, method of contact and selection & training of interviewers, process and outcome evaluations and method of interpretation, the reported outcome is meaningless at best and a deliberate attempt at disinformation at worst.
A stratified, randomly selected sample of 1,000 respondents could more accurately represent a population of millions than 1,000,000 respondents in a similar population who were not selected randomly and not stratified according to conditions like those described above. On the other hand, as a rule, the more people surveyed correctly - the higher the probability the sample represents the population. This rather obscure poll of 1361 Palestinians among 1.5 million, may or may not represent the views of the Palestinian people as a whole. However, it is reported to serve that very end.
When an organization does not reveal their funding source, their purpose, survey design (selection and wording of questions), their sampling techniques, method of contact and selection & training of interviewers, process and outcome evaluations and method of interpretation, the reported outcome is meaningless at best and a deliberate attempt at disinformation at worst.
February 10 2009
This material is available for republication as long as reprints include verbatim copy of the article in its entirety, respecting its integrity. Reprints must cite the author and Axis of Logic as the original source including a "live link" to the article. Thank you!"
This material is available for republication as long as reprints include verbatim copy of the article in its entirety, respecting its integrity. Reprints must cite the author and Axis of Logic as the original source including a "live link" to the article. Thank you!"
Addenda
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The following questions were asked on the survey questionnaire. Multiple-choice lists beneath some of the questions are not included.They can be viewed at the An-Nahah website:
1. Do you think that the Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip was a reaction to the firing of rockets from the Strip?
2. Do you support military operations by Palestinian resistance factions after reaching a truce agreement?
3. Do you think that the PLO factions participated in the resistance during the war on Gaza?
4. Do you think that the war on Gaza strengthened Hamas in the West Bank?
5. What are your priorities at the present time?
6. Do you think that funds secured so far for rebuilding the Gaza Strip are enough?
7. In your opinion to whom raised funds to rebuild the Gaza Strip should be given?
8. Do you think that aids sent to Gaza are being distributed on a biased factional basis?
9. Do you think that aids in the Gaza Strip reach those who rightly deserve them?
10. Who in your opinion is best capable of rebuilding the Gaza Strip?
11. Do you think that the reaction of the Arab public measured up to the catastrophe in the Gaza Strip?
12. Do you think that the reaction of the Islamic public measured up to the catastrophe in the Gaza Strip?
13. Do you think that the reaction of the international public measured up to the catastrophe in the Gaza Strip?
14. After the war on Gaza, do you think that there is a genuine desire among all concerned parties to end the current Palestinian division?
15. After the war on Gaza, do you think that the Palestinian leaderships (Fateh, Hamas, Jihad, the Left ---etc.) are capable of ending the current Palestinian division?
16. In your opinion, who stands as an obstacle before a Palestinian dialogue?
17. After the war on Gaza, do you think that the Palestinian public is ready to lead a national reconciliation to a success?
18. Do you think that Fateh is concerned with a national reconciliation on the bases of the top national interests of the Palestinian people?
19. Do you think that Hamas is concerned with a national reconciliation on the bases of the top national interests of the Palestinian people?
20. Do you think that Fateh contributed to the widening of the Palestinian internal rift?
21. Do you think that Hamas contributed to the widening of the Palestinian internal rift?
22. Do you think that the Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip increased the possibility of the separation of the Gaza Strip from the West Bank?
23. Do you think that the new US administration under Obama is serious in its endeavors to achieve peace in the Middle East?
24. Do you think that Hamas should accept a truce for one year and a half?
25. Do you think that the suggested truce will hold for long in the future?
26. Who is the biggest beneficiary from a truce between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip?
27. In your opinion, who emerged victorious in the last war on the Gaza Strip?
28. Do you support or reject the entrance of Arab forces to the Gaza Strip?
29. Do you support or reject the entrance of Arab forces to the West Bank?
30. Do you support or reject the entrance of international forces to the Gaza Strip?
31. Do you support or reject the entrance of international forces to the West Bank?
32. How do you assess media coverage of the war on the Gaza Strip?
33. Are you in favor of forming a transitional government for the purpose of preparing for and supervising new presidential and PLC elections?
34. If presidential elections are held in the present time, to whom from among the following do you give your vote?
If new PLC elections are conducted, whom do you vote for?
If new PLC elections are conducted, whom do you vote for?
35. If new legislative elections were to be held today, which of the following would win?
36. Do you think that there are horizons for national reconciliation?
37. There are those who say that Hamas is belligerent towards Fateh activists in the Gaza Strip. Do you support or reject this allegation?
38. There are those who say that the Palestinian Authority arrests Hamas activists in the West Bank. Do you support or reject this allegation?
39. Are you worried about your life under the present circumstances?
40. Are you pessimistic or optimistic towards the general Palestinian situation at this stage?
41. Under the present circumstances, do you feel that you, your family and your properties are safe?
42. Which of the following political affiliations do you support?
These are the General Results of the survey, Opinion Poll no.37, as it has been interpreted and reported by An-Najah National University:
- 28.6 % of respondents considered the war waged on the Gaza Strip by Israel a reaction to the firing of rockets from the Strip; 69.1% rejected.
- 39.9% of respondents supported military operations by Palestinian resistance factions even after agreeing on a truce.
- 71.1% of respondents believed that the PLO factions participated in resistance during the war on Gaza.
- 57.7% of respondents believed that the war on Gaza strengthened Hamas movement inside the West Bank.
- The top priorities of respondents at the present time were as follows:
- Achieving a national reconciliation 52.6%
- Rebuilding Gaza 34%
- Improving the economic conditions 12% - 27.9% of respondents believed that the aids secured up to the present time are enough to rebuild the Gaza Strip.
- As to whom the funds for rebuilding the Gaza Strip should be given, 19.8% said that the Palestinian Authority should be in charge of these funds, 18.1% said Hamas, 22.3% said a national committee from all Palestinian factions, and 21.1% said the UNRWA should be in charge.
- 45.8% of respondents believed that the aids given to the Gaza Strip are being distributed with factional biases.
- 34.9% of respondents believed that aids to the Gaza Strip reach the people who deservedly need them.
- As for the best side which should be entrusted with rebuilding the Gaza Strip, 35.5% of respondents said it should be local companies, 20.6%said it should be Arab companies and 26.3% said it should be multinational companies.
- 67.4% of respondents considered the reaction of the Arab public to the war on the Gaza Strip measured up to the level of the catastrophe.
- 69.3% from among respondents considered the reaction of the Islamic public to the war on the Gaza Strip measured up to the level of the catastrophe.
- 63% of respondents considered the reaction of the International public to the war on the Gaza Strip measured up to the level of the catastrophe.
- 47.5% of respondents believed that after the war on Gaza there is a genuine desire among the concerned parties to end the current Palestinian division.
- 54.4% of respondents believed that after the war on Gaza, the Palestinian leaderships ( Fateh, Hamas, Jihad, the left---etc.) are capable of ending the current Palestinian division.
- 23.7% of respondents said that those who hinder the Palestinian dialogue are persons from Hamas and Fateh; 15.7 % said it is Hamas movement; 10.9% said it is Fateh movement.
- 60% of respondents believed that after the war on Gaza the Palestinian public is ready to support a national reconciliation.
- 54.4% of respondents believed that Fateh movement is concerned with a national reconciliation on the bases of the top national Palestinian interests.
- 48.6% of respondents believed that Hamas movement is concerned with a national reconciliation on the bases of the top national Palestinian interests.
- 48.9% of respondents believed that Fateh movement participated in widening the internal Palestinian rift.
- 62.8% of respondents believed that Hamas movement participated in widening the internal Palestinian rift.
- 56.9% of respondents believed that the Israeli war on the Gaza Strip increased the possibility of the separation of the Gaza Strip from the West Bank.
- 24% of respondents believed that the new American administration under Obama is serious in its endeavors to achieve peace in the Middle East.
- 64.3% of respondents saw that Hamas should accept a truce for a year and a half.
- 20% of respondents saw that the suggested truce will hold for long in the future.
- 34.1% of respondents believed that Israel is the main beneficiary from a truce between Israel and Hamas; 17.1% said the beneficiary is Hamas and 43% said that the beneficiary is the citizens of the Gaza Strip.
- 31.6% of respondents believed that Hamas emerged victorious from the last war; 13.4 % said the victorious side is Israel.
- 51.7% of respondents supported allowing Arab troops to enter the Gaza Strip.
- 26.7% of respondents supported allowing Arab troops to enter the West Bank.
- 66.3% of respondents supported allowing international troops to enter the Gaza Strip.
- 21% of respondents supported allowing international troops to enter the West Bank.
- 68.3% of respondents assessed media coverage of the war on Gaza as "good"
- 82% of respondents supported the formation of a transitional government whose aim will be to prepare for and supervise Presidential and PLC elections.
- 79% of respondents said that they will participate in the coming presidential elections. From among those who said they will participate, 31.9% said that they will give their votes to Fateh's candidate; 23.5% said they will give their votes to Hamas' candidate.
- 79.4% of respondents said that they will participate in the coming legislative elections. From among those who said they will participate, 31.4% said that they will give their votes to Fateh's candidates; 24.6% said they will give their votes to Hamas' candidates.
- If PLC elections are to be conducted, 29.7% of respondents expected the winning of Fateh movement; 33.3% expected the winning of Hamas.
- 51.9% of respondents believed that there are horizons for a Palestinian National reconciliation.
- 50.7% of respondents believed that Hamas movement assaults Fateh activists in the Gaza Strip.
- 48.8% of respondents believed that the Palestinian Authority arrests Hamas activists in the West Bank.
- 55% of respondents expressed fear for their lives under the present circumstances.
- 59.3% of respondents said that they are pessimistic of the general Palestinian situation at this stage.
- 53.9% of respondents said that they neither feel safe for themselves nor for their families and properties under the current circumstances.
* As for political affiliation respondents gave the following results: People's Party %1.0, Democratic Front %0.7, Islamic Jihad %3.2, Fateh 30.3%, Hamas 21.5%, Fida 0.1, Popular Front 3.7%, Palestinian National Initiative 0.9%, Independent nationalist 6.5%, Independent Islamist 3.0%, None of the above 28.8%, Others 0.3%
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